Women's RWC 2025: Australia v USA Preview

By Ryszard Chadwick

Friday 29, August 2025

POOL A CRUNCH MATCH

On 30 August 2025, Australia face the USA in a critical Pool A match at York’s LNER Community Stadium, kicking off at 19:30 BST (14:30 EDT), live on Paramount+. With quarter-final spots at stake in a pool with England and Samoa, this game is pivotal.

Stakes and Standings

Only the top two Pool A teams advance. Australia, tied with England at 5 points, lead after a 73-0 win over Samoa (+73 PD, 11 tries scored). The USA, with 0 points, sit third after a 69-7 loss to England (-62 PD, 1 try scored). Australia’s win likely secures progression; the USA need an upset to stay alive before facing Samoa.

Post-Round 1 qualification probabilities: England 98%, Australia 72%, USA 21%, Samoa 10%.

Head-to-head win probabilities: Australia 76%, USA 24%.

World Rankings: Australia 6th, USA 9th.

Team	P	W	L	D	PF	PA	PD	BP	Pts
Australia	1	1	0	0	73	0	+73	1	5
England	1	1	0	0	69	7	+62	1	5
USA	1	0	1	0	7	69	-62	0	0
Samoa	1	0	1	0	0	73	-73	0	0

Photo: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

Head-to-Head

Last Three head to head games - Australia lead 2-1:

• May 2025: Australia 27-19 USA

• May 2024: USA 32-25 Australia

• July 2023: Australia 58-17 USAAustralia average 37 PPG, USA 23 PPG.

Form and Stats

Australia: 2-win streak. Vs Samoa: 58% possession, 65% territory, 11 tries, 0 conceded, 11 turnovers won, 88% tackle rate, 10 penalties conceded, 26 kicks (1:6.3 kick-to-pass ratio).

USA: 2-loss streak. Vs England: 52% possession, 49% territory, 1 try (E. Jarrell -Searcy, 25th min), 11 conceded (4 from lineouts), 12 penalties (9 set-piece), 90% tackle rate, 147 carries, 9 kicks (1:23.7 ratio).

S

Australia Strengths: 11 tries, 0 conceded vs Samoa; 80% lineout retention, fast backs (Miller: 3 line breaks).

Australia Weakness: 10 penalties, inconsistent in pressure games (5th-7th in recent World Cups).

USA Strengths: 147 carries vs England, excels in direct running (Zackary, Johnson).

USA Weakness: 11 tries conceded (4 from lineouts), 12 penalties (9 set-piece), vulnerable on edges.

Tactics and Key Battles

Australia: Target territory (78% possession final 10 mins vs Samoa), reduce penalties (10), leverage backline speed (Miller, Stewart). Cramer’s kicking and McKenzie’s playmaking drive attack as well as targeting scrums to gain penalties & driving maul try's from penalties. Keep the game in the USA half and go after breakdown turnovers.

USA: Use Direct carries (Zackary: 12, Johnson: 19 in last game) as well as Maher & Ember for multi-phase play to tire Australia - Keep possession don't take risks. Avoid breakdown contests, flood field for line speed to counter Australia’s wings, reduce set-piece penalties (9/12 vs England). Risks quick ball but strengthens wide channels. Force skill set errors and counter attack. USA need to increase their 22m conversion %s.

Kicking Game: Australia: 26 kicks (1:6.3 ratio) vs Samoa for territory; Cramer key. USA: 9 kicks (1:23.7 ratio) vs England; Hawkins/Cantorna must increase tactical kicks. Penalty goals might play a big factor.

Probability of Outcome: Calculations say Australia 76%, USA 24%. Australia’s form and stats favor them, but USA’s physicality could challenge if execution improves. Discipline & The Kicking game could define this result. If USA play an attritional direct physical game, they could be looking at a 1/4 final position.

By Ryszard Chadwick

Friday 29, August 2025