Clash of the Red Roses and Maple Leaves: A Statistical Deep Dive into the England vs Canada Women's Rugby World Cup 2025 Final

ryschadwick
Sep 25
13 min read

By Ryszard Chadwick| September 24, 2025

As the 2025 Women's Rugby World Cup in England concludes, the stage is set for an epic finale at Twickenham Stadium on September 27. World No. 1 England faces world No. 2 Canada in a historic rematch. England, chasing their third World Cup title (after victories in 1994 and 2014, both against Canada), enters as favorites. Yet Canada's Cinderella run, powered by crowdfunded grit and a stunning semi-final upset over defending champions New Zealand, has ignited global excitement.

This is no mere hype. It is a clash grounded in decades of data, recent form, and rigorous analytics. We will dissect head-to-head records, tournament performances, key metrics, and probabilistic models to answer: Why will England prevail? (Spoiler: The numbers favor the Red Roses, but Canada's chaos could spark) Let us dive in.

Head-to-Head: England's Iron Grip on the Rivalry

Since their first meeting in 1993, England and Canada have clashed 37 times. The record stands at a lopsided 33-3 in favor of the Red Roses, with one draw. England has outscored Canada 1,271-489, racking up 197 tries to Canada’s 66. They have won both World Cup finals against Canada, and the last five encounters, all England victories, average an 18-point margin.

Here is a snapshot of the last 5 head-to-heads (England scores first):

Date	Competition	Score (Eng-Can)	Margin
Oct 12, 2024	WXV 1	21-12	+9
Oct 27, 2023	WXV 1	45-12	+33
Sep 30, 2023	Women's Internationals	29-12	+17
Sep 23, 2023	Women's Internationals	50-24	+26
Nov 4, 2022	RWC Pool	26-19	+7

Key Insights: England averages 34 points to Canada’s 16, a commanding 18-point edge. The tightest recent affair was 2024's 21-12, showing Canada can compete, but England’s firepower often overwhelms, as in the 45-12 romp.

Recent Form: England's Machine Meets Canada's Momentum

Both teams arrive undefeated, but their styles diverge. England, as hosts, bulldozed Pool A with clinical precision. Canada tore through Pool B, peaking with their NZ stunner.

England's Tournament Run (5 Games, 283 Points Scored)

England topped Pool A unbeaten, then dispatched Scotland and France to reach the final.

Aug 22 vs USA (Pool A, Stadium of Light): 69-7. A 42,723-strong crowd saw backs explode for 11 tries.
Aug 30 vs Samoa (Pool A, Franklin’s Gardens): 92-3. Forward-led masterclass; 14 tries crushed opposition.
Sep 6 vs Australia (Pool A, Brighton): 47-7. Set-piece precision overwhelmed the Wallaroos.
Sep 14 vs Scotland (QF, Ashton Gate): 40-8. Defensive steel stifled Scottish fight.
Sep 20 vs France (SF, Ashton Gate): 35-17. Bench depth and kicking sealed a gritty win.

Avg: 56.6 points scored, 8.4 conceded. Unbeaten, with 68 lineouts won and a 93% tackle rate.

Canada's Tournament Run (5 Games, 227 Points Scored)

Canada dominated Pool B and shone in knockouts, capped by their semi-final upset.

Aug 23 vs Fiji (Pool B, LNER Community Stadium): 65-7. Julia Schell’s six-try haul set a record.
Aug 30 vs Wales (Pool B, CorpAcq Stadium): 42-0. Six-try shutout locked in top spot.
Sep 6 vs Scotland (Pool B, Sandy Park): 40-19. Counters edged a tense closer.
Sep 13 vs Australia (QF, Ashton Gate): 46-5. Pace and penalties routed the Wallaroos.
Sep 19 vs New Zealand (SF, Ashton Gate): 34-19. Disciplined chaos dethroned the Black Ferns.

Avg: 45.4 points scored, 10 conceded. Unbeaten, with 52 clean breaks fueling their surge.

Canada’s electric run stunned NZ, but England’s home-soil efficiency screams control.

Common Opponents: A Direct Comparison

The only direct comparison lies in matches against shared opponents, Australia and Scotland, offering a lens into relative dominance:

England vs Australia (Sep 6, Pool A): 47-7. England’s clinical set-piece and backline flair yielded 7 tries, conceding just 1.
Canada vs Australia (Sep 13, QF): 46-5. Canada matched England’s try count (7) with explosive counters, holding Australia to a single try.
England vs Scotland (Sep 14, QF): 40-8. England’s defense suffocated Scotland, allowing 1 try while scoring 6.
Canada vs Scotland (Sep 6, Pool B): 40-19. Canada’s pace generated 6 tries, but a leakier defense conceded 3 tries.

Analysis: England and Canada scored near-identical points against Australia (47 vs 46) and Scotland (40 vs 40), with England’s +40 and +32 margins slightly outpacing Canada’s +41 and +21. England’s defense shines, conceding 15 points total vs Canada’s 24 across these games. This edge in defensive solidity, paired with England’s home advantage, tilts the scales, though Canada’s attacking flair keeps them in striking distance.

The Hype Around Canada's NZ Upset: Qualifying the Fairy Tale

Canada’s 34-19 semi-final demolition of New Zealand set X ablaze, 50,000 likes on one thread hailed it the “upset of the century.” But context matters: The Black Ferns, ranked No. 4 pre-tournament, lacked their 2022 dominance. Their run? Gritty, not explosive: 38-8 vs Italy, 29-14 vs Japan, and a comeback 26-12 QF vs South Africa after trailing. NZ’s semi-final XV averaged 28 caps, with seven starters under 10 (e.g., Holly Rome, debutant; Renee Holmes, 8 caps). Injuries (Jorja Miller out) and an 82% tackle rate exposed youth. Canada capitalized, but England’s veteran core (45+ caps avg) poses a tougher test.

Try Sources: Distributed Firepower vs Star Power

Tournament tries tell a tale of depth vs dependency. England racked up 43 tries across five games, spread across 18 players, true squad symmetry. Leading the charge: Ellie Kildunne (fullback, 7 tries: 2 vs USA, 2 vs Samoa, 1 vs Australia, 1 vs Scotland, 1 vs France). Jess Breach (wing, 6: 2 vs USA, 2 vs Samoa, 1 vs Australia, 1 vs France) and Kelsey Clifford (prop, 5: 3 vs Samoa, 2 vs Scotland) follow, with Sarah Bern (prop, 3) and Meg Jones (centre, 3: 1 vs USA, 1 vs Samoa, 1 vs France) adding punch. Tatyana Heard (2), Lark Atkin-Davies (2), Amy Cokayne (2), Abbie Ward (2), and others (Hannah Botterman, Sadia Kabeya, Abby Dow, Maud Muir, Zoe Aldcroft, Morwenna Talling, Rosie Galligan, Nassira Konde, 1 each) contribute. Without Kildunne? England still nets 36 tries, a 16% drop, proving no single star drives them.

England Try Scorers (Ranked):

Ellie Kildunne – 7
Jess Breach – 6
Kelsey Clifford – 5
Sarah Bern, Meg Jones – 3 each
Tatyana Heard, Lark Atkin-Davies, Amy Cokayne, Abbie Ward – 2 each
Hannah Botterman, Sadia Kabeya, Abby Dow, Maud Muir, Zoe Aldcroft, Morwenna Talling, Rosie Galligan, Nassira Konde – 1 each

Canada scored 35 tries, with 65% from six players. Sophie de Goede (No. 8, 7: 2 vs Fiji, 1 vs Wales, 1 vs Scotland, 1 vs Australia, 2 vs New Zealand) and Julia Schell (wing, 6: all vs Fiji in a record second-half haul) lead. De Goede’s true value lies in her 58 points (second overall), with 20 conversions (100% success), 11 offloads, and 84 runs. Nominated for 2025 World Rugby Women's Player of the Year (her second nod after 2022), she’s Canada’s linchpin, captaining from No. 8 post-knee surgery. Justine Pelletier (scrum-half, 4), Alex Tessier (centre, 3), Olivia Apps (lock, 3), and Alysha Corrigan (fullback, 3) support, with Asia Hogan-Rochester, McKinley Hunt (2 each), and others (Karen Paquin, Quinn Ng, Brittany Kassil, Caroline Crossley, Gillian Boag, Fancy Bermudez, 1 each) adding 13 tries. Without de Goede? Canada drops to 28 tries (20%) and loses 25% of points (58/227), exposing vulnerability if contained (15-point drop historically).

Canada Try Scorers (Ranked):

Sophie de Goede – 7
Julia Schell – 6
Justine Pelletier – 4
Alex Tessier, Olivia Apps, Alysha Corrigan – 3 each
Asia Hogan-Rochester, McKinley Hunt – 2 each
Karen Paquin, Quinn Ng, Brittany Kassil, Caroline Crossley, Gillian Boag, Fancy Bermudez – 1 each

England’s spread (2.4 tries/player) vs Canada’s top-heavy reliance (2.8 for top six, 1.5 overall) favors the hosts in a grind.

Possession Paradox: England's Clinical Edge

England thrives with less ball, 52% possession vs Canada’s 58% and NZ’s 61% (semis). Against France, they held 61% (65% first half, 57% late); vs Scotland, 54%. Yet they convert ruthlessly: 7.2 points per possession (vs Canada’s 5.9), with a 78% phase success rate turning 612 carries into 43 tries. Meters per carry (4.8) lead despite fewer touches, thanks to set-piece launches. Canada’s 812 carries and 3,450 meters rely on volume, but England’s efficiency (14 turnovers lost vs 12, higher conversion) wins tight margins.

The Kicking Game: Boots Over Brawn

England’s 113 kicks (22.6/game, ~1,750m) dwarf Canada’s 80 (16/game, ~1,200m). Zoe Harrison’s 94% conversion rate (34/36, no penalties) pins foes deep; England’s pass-kick ratio (1:0.24) prioritizes territory. Canada’s 1:0.12 ratio fuels offloads (85 vs 35) but risks turnovers (12 won by England). De Goede’s 20/20 conversions and Tessier’s 1/1 penalty add bite, but England’s 55% possession from kicks trumps Canada’s counters.

Set-Piece Battle: Scrums and Lineouts

The forward battleground often decides finals, and set-pieces, scrums and lineouts, will be pivotal. England boasts a 95% scrum success rate on own feed (2 penalties conceded across 20 scrums), per World Rugby stats. Their lineout is elite at 92% retention (68 won, 4 stolen, Abbie Ward leads with 4 steals). This dominance (85 dominant tackles) allows quick ball to backs like Kildunne.

Canada counters with flawless scrums, 100% success on own feed (no penalties in 18 scrums), the highest among semifinalists. Their lineout clips at 89% (65 won, 3 stolen, de Goede with 3), fueling offloads (85 total). But against England's Ward-led thefts, Canada's set-piece edge could falter if pressure mounts.

Edge? England's lineout disruption vs Canada's scrum perfection, expect 8-10 scrums and 15-20 lineouts. England's 92% tackle rate post-set-piece tilts control, but Canada's flawless scrums could launch de Goede's carries.

Bench Battle: Timing and Splits

England’s 5-3 bench split (5 forwards, 3 backs) in all 5 games (USA, Samoa, Australia, Scotland, France) balances set-piece and backline impact, averaging subs at 48-55 minutes, Lark Atkin-Davies and Rosie Galligan (52’ vs France) drove 12 points post-sub. Canada’s 5-3 split in 4/5 games sustains chaos, subbing earlier (42-50’), DeMerchant (45’ vs NZ) sparks tries but concedes late (60% points). England’s bench outscores foes 62-28 in the 50-70’ window; Canada’s 55-41. England’s 92% late tackles vs Canada’s 85% tilt the edge.

Stats and Analytics: Where the Battle Will Be Won

Tournament data highlights England’s grind vs Canada’s chaos (RugbyPass, semis):

Metric	England	Canada	Edge?
Tries Scored	43	35	England
Tackle Success %	93%	89%	England
Meters Gained	2,950	3,450	Canada
Carries	612	812	Canada
Clean Breaks	52	52	Even
Offloads	35	85	Canada
Defenders Beaten	118	158	Canada
Missed Tackles	72	98	England
Dominant Tackles	85	52	England
Lineouts Won	68	65	England
Turnovers Lost	14	12	Canada
Kicks from Hand	113	80	England
Penalties Conceded	32	35	England

Analytics Take: Canada’s attack, more carries, offloads, and breaks, tests edges. England’s kicking and defense (fewer misses, more dominants) choke transitions. Expect 55-45% possession to England via lineouts; their discipline (1 yellow) holds firm.

Tactical Matchup: Two key battles could define the final. First, England’s maul defense, led by Abbie Ward and Zoe Aldcroft’s 85 dominant tackles, faces Canada’s offload-heavy attack, with Sophie de Goede’s 11 offloads and 84 runs fueling 65% of their tries. England’s 93% tackle rate and 4 lineout steals (Ward leading) could choke Canada’s phase play, but if de Goede and Justine Pelletier exploit gaps, Canada’s 158 defenders beaten could spark counters. Second, Canada’s flawless 100% scrum success (no penalties in 18 scrums) pits McKinley Hunt and DaLeaka Menin against England’s 95% scrum retention (2 penalties in 20). Canada’s scrum edge could launch de Goede’s carries, but England’s lineout supremacy (92% retention, 4 steals) may flip field position, especially with Zoe Harrison’s 113 kicks. The team that wins these battles, maul defense vs offloads and scrum vs lineout, likely controls the tempo and scoreboard.

Canada’s Ruck Speed and Versatility: Canada’s attack thrives on lightning-fast rucks, averaging 3.2 seconds per ruck (fastest among semifinalists, per World Rugby), with 78% of rucks cleared under 3 seconds. This speed, driven by Justine Pelletier’s quick distribution and Fabiola Forteza’s breakdown work, fuels their 85 offloads and 158 defenders beaten, keeping defenses scrambling. Their versatility amplifies this: Sophie de Goede toggles between lock and No. 8, contributing 7 tries and 3 lineout steals; Julia Schell shifts seamlessly from wing to fullback, scoring 6 tries; and players like Olivia Apps (lock/back) and Alysha Corrigan (wing/centre) adapt across positions. This flexibility, seen in 4/5 matches with multi-positional substitutions (e.g., Apps at lock vs Fiji, back row vs NZ), allows Canada to adjust dynamically, stretching England’s structured defense. However, England’s 85 dominant tackles and 93% completion rate could slow Canada’s rucks, forcing errors if Ward and Aldcroft disrupt early.

Forward Pack Focus: England's Second Row Options

England’s second row (4-5) secured 68 lineouts. Morwenna Talling (4, 4/5 starts) and Abbie Ward (5, 3/5 starts) blend mobility and nous, Talling’s 90% retention and Ward’s 3 steals dominate. Rosie Galligan (bench 4/5) adds late bite.

Depth Check: England's All-Round Arsenal vs Canada's Star Turns

England’s depth shines: World No. 1, two World Cup titles, 20 Six Nations crowns. Stars like Amy Cokayne (hooker), Natasha Hunt (scrum-half), and Alex Matthews (No. 8) anchor; Megan Jones (centre, 5/5 starts, Player of the Year nominee) and Ellie Kildunne (7 tries) dazzle. Bench firepower, 18 try contributors, spreads load. Marlie Packer (Samoa only) could shock off the bench, her 112 caps disrupting Canada’s flow.

Canada leans on Sophie de Goede (58 points, 7 tries) and Emily Tuttosi (hooker). Top-heavy (65% tries from six players), they falter if de Goede’s contained, 15-point drop historically. England’s balance wins in a grind.

Coaching Evolution: England’s John Mitchell, a former All Blacks coach, has evolved the Red Roses into a balanced machine, blending set-piece dominance (95% scrum, 92% lineout) with dynamic attack (7.2 points per possession). His use of 5-3 bench splits reflects a shift from his 2023 possession-heavy approach to a territorial game, leveraging Zoe Harrison’s 113 kicks to pin foes deep. Canada’s Kévin Rouet has transformed the Maple Leaves into a transitional threat, emphasizing offloads (85, led by de Goede’s 11) and scrum solidity (100% retention). Rouet’s early subs (42-50’) sustain chaos, a departure from his 2022 conservative play, but Canada’s 85% late tackle rate shows vulnerability against England’s grinding depth. Mitchell’s structured efficiency likely edges Rouet’s flair in a final’s pressure cooker.

The Bigger Picture: Why an England Win Matters for Women's Rugby

An England victory would be more than a trophy, it would serve as a clarion call for the global professionalization of women's rugby, a transformative moment for the sport's growth and equity. The Red Roses have led the charge since 2014, when the Rugby Football Union (RFU) introduced full-time professional contracts, a pioneering move unmatched by any other nation at the time. This investment has fueled their dominance, evidenced by a current 32-game win streak (unbroken since the 2022 World Cup final loss to New Zealand) and a prior 30-win run, setting a benchmark for excellence. The data underscores their edge: Professionalized teams, with structured training regimens, access to elite coaching, and advanced recovery protocols, generate 15% more meters gained and 10% higher tackle efficiency compared to semi-professional or amateur sides. England's model has widened the gap, but it also lights the path for others to follow.

For nations like Canada, still reliant on semi-professional structures and crowdfunding to compete at this level, catching up requires systemic change. Professional salaries (England’s average £30,000+ contrasts starkly with global disparities, where many players earn minimal or no pay), dedicated coaching staff, state-of-the-art facilities, and high-quality equipment are non-negotiable for sustained elite performance. Without these, the gap persists, Canada’s remarkable run, while inspiring, leans heavily on individual brilliance like Sophie de Goede’s rather than systemic depth. England's 18 try scorers compared to Canada’s 14 highlight how professionalism fosters squad-wide contributions, reducing reliance on singular stars. A Red Roses win would reinforce this blueprint, urging unions worldwide to invest in infrastructure, from grassroots academies to professional leagues like England’s Premier 15s.

The stakes extend beyond performance. Women’s rugby is riding a wave of unprecedented popularity, and England’s success amplifies its visibility. The 2025 tournament has shattered attendance records, Twickenham expects 82,000 for the final, building on the 42,723 who packed the Stadium of Light for England’s opener against the USA. Television viewership has soared, with semi-finals drawing over 5 million global viewers, per World Rugby metrics, and streaming platforms reporting a 30% spike in women’s rugby engagement compared to 2022. Social media buzz on X reflects this, with posts about the final trending globally and one Canadian crowdfunding thread amassing 50,000 likes. This surge in fandom generates record revenues, World Rugby reported a 20% increase in broadcast deals for 2025 over 2021, but these funds must be reinvested strategically.

The expansion of WXV, World Rugby’s premier annual women’s competition, signals a step toward global growth. Launched in 2023 with three tiers (WXV 1, 2, and 3), it has grown from 6 teams per tier to 8 in WXV 1 for 2026, incorporating emerging nations like Japan, Spain, and Samoa, per World Rugby announcements. The Pacific Four (Canada, New Zealand, Australia, USA) will also expand in 2026, adding Japan to increase high-level matches, per Rugby Canada. These expansions provide critical exposure for developing nations, but funding remains key. WXV 2024 saw Canada compete in WXV 1, splitting matches with England (2 losses, including 21-12), yet their semi-pro setup limits consistency. An England win would underscore the economic case for professionalization, pushing governing bodies to allocate WXV and Pacific Four revenues to emerging unions, further expand tournaments to include nations like South Africa and Fiji, and ensure equitable pay and conditions for players globally. England’s professional model, with centralized training and full-time staff, contrasts with Canada’s reliance on part-time players, highlighting the need for investment to level the playing field.

Moreover, an England victory would amplify the sport’s cultural impact. The Red Roses’ professional setup has made them role models, inspiring young athletes and driving participation rates up 25% in England since 2014, per RFU data. A third World Cup title would cement their status as a beacon for aspiring players, particularly in nations where women’s rugby remains underfunded. It would also pressure international federations to prioritize gender equity, ensuring women’s teams receive the same support as men’s, crucial for closing the competitive gap. Canada’s crowdfunded journey is heroic, but it exposes systemic inequities; England’s win would highlight the need for structural investment to make such underdog stories less reliant on grassroots miracles and more on sustainable systems. The global rugby community stands at a tipping point, England’s triumph could be the catalyst to make women’s rugby a fully professional, universally competitive sport.

Sidebar: What if Canada Wins?

A Canadian victory would be a seismic moment for women’s rugby, proving that passion and talent can overcome structural disparities. It would spotlight the power of underdog stories, with Canada’s crowdfunded, semi-pro squad toppling England’s professional machine. Sophie de Goede’s 58-point brilliance, paired with their 100% scrum success, could spark a global rallying cry for investment in emerging nations, accelerating funding for programs like WXV and Pacific Four to bridge the gap. A win would elevate Canada’s profile, inspiring nations to back their women’s teams with resources to match their heart, potentially reshaping the sport’s competitive landscape.

The Formula: Crunching Win Probabilities

Poisson/Skellam model: λ_E=34 (h2h), λ_C=25 (tournament form, adjusted). P(Eng > Can) = 1 - CDF(0 | μ=9) ≈82%. Adjusted for form/home: 75-80%.

text

from scipy.stats import skellam
eng_lambda = 34.0
can_lambda = 25.0
prob_eng_win = 1 - skellam.cdf(0, eng_lambda, can_lambda)
print(f"England Win Probability: {prob_eng_win:.1%}")

X-Factors: Players Who Could Tip the Scales

England: Ellie Kildunne (7 tries, electric fullback), Zoe Harrison (kicking), Marlie Packer (benched post-Samoa, could we see her back?), Abby Dow, and World Rugby Player of the Year nominee Meg Jones.
Canada: Sophie de Goede (58 points, 7 tries), Justine Pelletier (4 tries, ruck speed catalyst), Emily Tuttosi, Alex Tessier, Julia Schell, Alysha Corrigan.

Prediction: England Wins 28-22, A Nail-Biter

The data favors England, but Canada’s recent form, ruck speed (3.2 seconds), and versatility make this a closer contest than historical margins suggest. England’s depth (18 try scorers) and defensive solidity (93% tackle rate, 8.4 points conceded) should counter Canada’s chaotic attack (85 offloads, 158 defenders beaten), with Zoe Harrison’s 113 kicks flipping field position. However, Canada’s 100% scrum success and Sophie de Goede’s 58-point haul, paired with Justine Pelletier’s quick rucks, could keep them within a score, as seen in their 21-12 loss to England in 2024. Expect a tense battle, with England’s experience and home crowd (82,000 expected) edging out a gritty Canadian side. England 28-22 Canada, a six-point thriller that showcases both teams’ brilliance.

Sources: RugbyPass, World Rugby, BBC, Guardian, Rugby Canada. Stats as of Sep 24, 2025.

By Ryszard Chadwick| September 24, 2025